The battle for Kenya’s top seat in 2027 General Election is fast heating up, with two major political parties—United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and Jubilee—locked in a standoff over the potential presidential candidacy of former Interior Cabinet Secretary Dr. Fred Okengo Matiangi.

The situation has created tensions within the opposition as both parties claim Matiang’i as their preferred presidential flagbearer, underscoring deeper struggles for political dominance and alliance-building ahead of the next general elections.

Matiangi’s political rise and influence

Matiangi is not a new name in Kenya’s governance (and technically, political) landscape. Having served in several key ministerial positions, including Education, ICT, and Interior, he earned a reputation as a no-nonsense administrator with a results-oriented approach.

Under former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s administration, Matiang’i was entrusted with significant responsibilities, at one point overseeing multiple ministries in what many saws as a move to consolidate power around him.

His tenure as Interior Cabinet Secretary cemented his image as a strong leader, particularly in law enforcement, public order, and governance. His tough stance against illegal activities and his role in implementing government policies made him both admired and feared. Many political analysts have long speculated that he would be a viable candidate for the presidency.

Now, with the 2027 elections approaching, the question is not whether Matiang’i will run but rather which party will endorse him.

‘Matiangi is our candidate’

Jubilee, through its Secretary-General Jeremiah Kioni, has openly declared its support for Matiang’i as their presidential candidate. During a press briefing, Kioni stated, “Matiang’i is our candidate. He has the experience, the leadership skills, and the vision that Kenya needs.”

This announcement has been met with enthusiasm among Jubilee loyalists who see Matiang’i as the best candidate to take on the ruling Kenya Kwanza coalition led by President William Ruto. Many believe that Matiang’i, having worked closely with former President Kenyatta, represents continuity and a return to structured governance.

Jubilee has been in search of a strong candidate since its political influence waned after the 2022 elections. By endorsing Matiang’i, the party hopes to reclaim its position as a dominant force in Kenyan politics.

However, this decision has not gone unchallenged. On the other side of the political divide, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) insists that Matiang’i is their candidate. UPA’s Secretary-General Jacob Bagaka has been vocal about the party’s stance, stating after a leadership meeting in Kisii, “We remain firm. Matiangi will fly the UPA flag in the 2027 elections.”

UPA, a relatively new party seeking national recognition, sees Matiang’i as their best shot at gaining mainstream political relevance. By fielding him as their candidate, UPA aims to establish itself as a key player in the opposition and position itself as an alternative to both Kenya Kwanza and other opposition factions.

Bagaka has also urged Jubilee to consider negotiations, adding, “We must unite or risk division. The opposition cannot afford to be fragmented if we hope to challenge the current administration. I have met Jeremiah Kioni in a hotel in Nirobi we have had talks but what we differ is the fact that Matiang’i won’t vie with Jubilee as a Party.”

Calls for a united opposition

The rivalry between Jubilee and UPA over Matiang’i’s candidacy raises concerns about opposition unity. In the past, divided opposition parties have struggled to mount a formidable challenge against ruling coalitions. Political analysts warn that if Jubilee and UPA do not resolve their differences, they could weaken their collective chances in 2027.

A potential solution being floated is a coalition between the two parties. Bagaka has emphasized the need for dialogue, saying, “The only way forward is through unity. We need a strong opposition front to compete effectively.”

However, some leaders within Jubilee remain skeptical, arguing that their party has more political experience and should take the lead. Kioni, while not completely dismissing talks, has maintained that “Jubilee is open to discussions, but our decision stands—Matiangi is our candidate.”

This push and pull highlights the larger struggle for political realignment as parties position themselves for the next election.

The Gusii factor: A community at crossroads

Matiang’i hails from the Gusii region, a community that has traditionally played a significant role in Kenyan politics. However, with the 2027 elections approaching, the Gusii vote is becoming a contested battleground.

Beyond Matiang’i, other prominent figures from the region have expressed interest in the presidency. Among them is former Chief Justice David Maraga, who, despite his judicial background, has garnered support for his integrity and strong leadership principles. Another potential candidate is activist Morara Kebaso, known for his advocacy on governance and social justice issues.

The emergence of multiple contenders from the Gusii community has created a dilemma. Who will the community rally behind? Some leaders argue that the Gusii vote should be consolidated behind Matiang’i to increase his chances, while others believe the community should weigh all options before making a final decision.

A local political analyst, Prof. Samuel Nyakundi, explains, “The Gusii region has always been influential in national politics. The challenge now is whether they will unite behind one candidate or remain divided.”

What this means for 2027 Elections

The wrangles over Matiang’i’s candidacy reflect the larger political shifts happening in Kenya. The 2027 elections are shaping up to be highly competitive, with new alliances forming and old political structures being challenged.

For Matiang’i, the main challenge will be navigating these party disputes while building a national campaign that goes beyond his strongholds. His ability to unify opposition factions and appeal to voters across the country will determine his success.

Meanwhile, the ruling Kenya Kwanza Alliance is watching closely. A divided opposition would play in their favour, making it easier to secure a second term. However, if the opposition manages to unite under a single candidate, the race could become more competitive.

As the tussle between Jubilee and UPA over Matiang’i’s candidacy continues, the stakes are high. Both parties recognize his potential as a strong contender, but their rivalry threatens to divide the opposition vote.

The coming months will be crucial in determining whether Jubilee and UPA can reach a consensus or if Matiang’i will be forced to choose between the two.