What next for opposition as Raila eyes AU top job?

Opposition leader Raila Odinga’s announcement to vie for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson has left the public with unanswered questions about what’s next for the opposition party.

Raila has been a towering figure in Kenya’s opposition, with unmatched influence and experience. Therefore, his absence might create a leadership vacuum that could be challenging to fill immediately.

While other leaders like Martha Karua, Kalonzo Musyoka, and Eugene Wamalwa may attempt to step up, they might not command the same level of trust and influence among the populace.

*Azimio leader Raila Odinga (right) with former Nigerian President Obasanjo Photo: TV47*

If the Azimio party leader gets the position as AU chairperson, the opposition could face fragmentation, with different leaders and factions struggling to come together cohesively, leading to disarray and weakened effectiveness in countering the ruling party’s agenda.

Being a Nyanza Kingpin, his departure could leave his supporters feeling disillusioned and uncertain about the future of their political representation.

Nyanza could face difficulties rallying behind a new leader or political party without a strong successor.

Recovering from Raila’s departure could take amount of time for the opposition, as building a new leadership structure and regaining the trust of the electorate could be a prolonged process, potentially leaving the opposition in a weakened state for the foreseeable future.

If Raila Odinga is elected as the AU Commission chair for a four-year term, he might have to exit local politics.

This would leave the country’s political stage to President William Ruto, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua and other second-tier politicians who have expressed interest in the presidency.